An AI forecasting lab that locks every prediction before the event, Bitcoin-timestamps it, and scores it in public against prediction markets — losses included.
Brier scores, the Murphy decomposition, a clustered bootstrap and a blending test, run on an open dataset of 5,654 timestamped model forecasts against Polymarket prices. If you build a probabilistic m
Since September our statistical models have made 7,426 probability calls on Polymarket questions. Each call is stored next to the market price at the moment it was made, and the file holding it is tim
A working chatbot demo and a support agent a company will pay a monthly invoice for are separated by operations, not by model quality. Here is the specific engineering that sits in that gap, and why your twentieth delivery is worth more than your first ten.
Ask almost any machine pointed at a market the same question and it will answer confidently: where is the price going next. It is the question with the screenshots and the viral threads, and it is the
Most ML dashboards show accuracy. For any model that outputs probabilities, accuracy hides the thing that matters: is a "70%" really a 70%? That's calibration — of all the times a model said 70%, do ~
Prediction markets have become one of the most talked-about ways to read the future. When real money moves on whether a candidate will win, a central bank will cut rates, or a team will lift a trophy,
